The Spread of Swine Flu: Blame it on Louisiana

Nate Silver has a map based on data from Google Flu Trends that shows the timeline of the spread of swine flu around the US:



Google Flu Trends works by applying the Google Panopticon to searches that correlate with CDC data on actual flu cases, and has the benefit of being immediately responsive to trends in outbreaks of influenza (CDC data tends to lag by a week or two).

Says Silver:

This map is fascinating on a number of levels. Although the initial outbreak of H1N1 back in April was centered on Texas, California, New York, Illinois and South Carolina, the place where the flu first hit critical mass several months later was in Louisiana. It then slowly radiated its way outward to most of the neighboring states -- Maine finally hit the 5,000-point threshold just last week. There also appear to be other points from which the flu spread -- a less prominent 'epicenter', for instance, centered in Minnesota and the Dakotas. And somehow, there came to be quite a lot of flu at various points in both Alaska and Hawaii -- Hawaii's peak actually came way back in June and July, well before the one in the Deep South.

Here's something I don't begin to understand: everyone kept saying there'd be a second wave of swine flu in the fall, because the slu likes colder temperatures. Sure enough that second wave came to pass - but it looks like it actually erupted in one of the warmest regions of the country at the height of summer. That makes the opposite of sense to me.

Anyhoo, here's some good news, according to Nate: "the flu is pretty much on the decline in all states except Northern New England." Though if you're looking for a reason to feel glum, you should be informed that more people have died in the US from swine flu than died in the attacks of September 11, and most of them were fairly young.

Meanwhile, I see that Google is going global (or at least semi-global) with their flu map:



Bad times for cold places.

Google Flu

No, it's not a mad scheme to embed the blueprint of Google's corporate ambitions in the genome of every living human (though don't think they haven't thought of it). It is, rather, an effort to use Google's alarmingly Everestian stockpile of data to track the spread of the flu bug.




Says Google:

We've found that certain search terms are good indicators of flu activity. Google Flu Trends uses aggregated Google search data to estimate flu activity in your state up to two weeks faster than traditional flu surveillance systems.

We have found a close relationship between how many people search for flu-related topics and how many people actually have flu symptoms. Of course, not every person who searches for "flu" is actually sick, but a pattern emerges when all the flu-related search queries from each state and region are added together.

During the 2007-2008 flu season, an early version of Google Flu Trends was used to share results each week with the Epidemiology and Prevention Branch of the Influenza Division at CDC. Across each of the nine surveillance regions of the United States, we were able to accurately estimate current flu levels one to two weeks faster than published CDC reports.

So by using the use of search terms as a proxy for people's deepest wishes and concerns, and by extension as a proxy for their physical state, Google is providing a public service - letting us know where and when the flu is spreading. Faster than the Centers for Disease Control itself. Nothing nefarious about that.

Right?

Google Earth Adds Two-Thirds of Earth's Surface

According to the New York Times, Google Earth is adding oceans.


(That there is off the coast of Hawaii.)

It'll be interesting to see what kind of detail it has. Will you be able to see coral reefs? Sunken ships? Crabs hamming it up for the satellites?

Also this sounds cool:

Another feature, Historical Imagery, provides the ability to scroll back through decades of satellite images and watch the spread of suburbia or erosion of coasts.

You get the feeling that we're approaching a time when Google Earth provides real-time updates and multi-perspectival images of every point on Earth from point-blank range, a Google Aleph that will panoptically fulfill Larry Page and Sergei Brin's own personal god-dream.

Google Earth Blog has much more.