Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Agricultural Production in a Warming World

More on global warming, this time from Conor Clarke, who links to William Cline's study Global Warming and Agriculture: Impact Estimates by Country. Clarke reproduces two maps from that study; this one shows "the change in agricultural productivity (by 2080) taking into account the potential benefits of 'carbon fertilization' (the increase in yield that occurs in a carbon rich environment"):

gw ag prod proj map

And this one shows the same without projecting carbon fertilization benefits:


Says Clarke:
The basic points of Cline's book are that, by the end of the 21st century, (1) climate change will lead to a slight decline in global agricultural productivity; and (2) climate change will lead to a giant decline in agricultural productivity in Africa, South America and India...

As a sidenote, I think it's important to recognize that deep brick color falling over most of Africa, South Asia and Latin America -- all places where agricultural productivity will fall by more than 25% -- actually hides big differences. For example, Cline reports that the southern regions of India would experience potential output declines of 30-35%, while northern regions would experience declines of 60%.
These maps, besides being delightfully Mondrianesque, illustrate beautifully (if that's the right word) the extent to which the business end of the global warming Howitzer is aimed squarely at the developing world (though the souther half of the UScould have some tough times ahead as well. The forecast for South Asia, which has enormous populations and is not that far removed from historically experiencing famine, and which could be among the most catastrophically inundated by rising seas starting near the end of the century, is especially distressing.

By contrast, under a favorable 'carbon fertilization' scenario much of the developed world actually comes out ahead (again, with the exception of the southern US, as well as much of Australia). China - around which the future track of global warming increasing hinges - also does rather well in the favorable scenario, and only somewhat poorly in the non-fertilization scenario. (By the way, as Clarke notes, "The effects of carbon fertilization are very uncertain, and depend crucially on the availability of other resources -- water for irrigation, say -- that will also be affected by global warming... [But] even if carbon fertilization yields large benefits, Cline estimates a decline in global agricultural productivity.)

As always with climate projections, there is a lot of uncertainty involved here. Things might not turn out so bad in a given region, or they might turn out far worse; but it's worth noting that the consequences of global warming so far have tended to meet or exceed climate scientists' most pessimistic forecasts.


Andrew said...

A decline in agricultural productivity from what level?

Some areas of the world, like the Ukraine and Russia, are nowhere near yielding the productivity they could yield using modern techniques practiced in America, Australia, Argentina, etc.

Chachy said...

Good question. I tried downloading the chapters from Cline's site but couldn't get it to work; I would be interested in knowing more about the context in which these maps were created.

Though of course, if you start speculating about changes in agricultural efficiency between now and 2080, you might have to take into account some of the negative consequences of the "green revolution" in places like India, where more intensive agricultural production has led to an alarming drop in the water tables in some parts of the country, among other problems (see here). (In other words, 'modern techniques' are sometimes unsustainable, and there may be some days of reckoning to come which this model has not anticipated).

Dohsan said...

The lession is clear: It's time for the Indians and Chinese to invade Kazahkstan & Siberia. Oh, and to invest in real estate in Montana and Alberta.

BTW, Egypt?

tn requin said...

sleeping bag
travel luggage
car gps
car parts
GPS navigation
portable GPS
lcd tv
flat tv
digital picture frames
unlocked cell phones
wedding dresses
wedding jewelry
chaussures mode
chaussures Femmes
women's shoes
round tablecloth
discount handbags
chaussures sport
chaussures pas cher
fashion bedding
id lanyard
creative gadgets
gift ideas
kids wall stickers
wall stickers
bath curtains
kitchen faucet
bathroom faucet

Anonymous said...

Microsoft Office
Office 2010
Microsoft Office 2010
Office 2010 key
Office 2010 download
Office 2010 Professional
Microsoft outlook
Outlook 2010
Windows 7
Microsoft outlook 2010

berita terbaru said...

Pretty good post. I just stumbled upon your blog and wanted to say that I have really enjoyed reading your blog posts. Any way I'll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you post again soon
point blank
Biro Jodoh Online Gratis
Ramalan Bintang Zodiak Terbaru
Ramalan Shio Zodiak Tionghoa
Kumpulan Contoh Naskah Pidato
Cara daftar point blank
Point Blank Online Indonesia
Kata-kata Bijak dan Motivasi
Koleksi Status Keren Facebook
mobile phone
my cupu
Harga Spesifikasi HP
Kumpulan berita terbaru

tempat terindah said...

indonewz fashionable tempat

Height Increasing Tips - Get Your Optimum Results said...

great article..

How To Get A Taller - Get You Optimum Results in Weeks
Exercises To Get Taller – Grow Taller Fast
Natural Ways To Get Taller - 100% Naturally
How To Look Tall - Tips On How You Can look Tall 2-3 inches Now!

Penis Enlargement Pills said...

I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I think I will leave my first comment. I don’t know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

posr said...

best post i get today

OCTFCU Online Banking said...

I alternate between depression and positivity when I read the news, or watch Nova science documentaries. We have the answers, just have yet to implement them.

writing services said...

I understand that it's global worming on the earth. But in my country there is a very cold and wet summer...I want to experience warming!

Anonymous said...

phone number lookup

muebles en pinto said...

Oh my god, there is a great deal of worthwhile data above!

arya said...

its really nice article thanks his

album foto said...

I think people fear idea management and innovation because there's a significant number of ideas that simply won't plan out.......Nice statement.....keep posting

asuransi pendidikan said...

this day I've been searching for information on various issues, this I found very good and I would like to congratulate you for your work.

design interior jakarta said...

I think that this post is one of the best that i have read in my life, congrats you did a great job,.

perusahaan security said...

the difference between the content spammers and most corporate innovators is that the smaller

jual wine said...

I'm writing to you because I just came across a business that I think has great potential. It lets you save money on almost everything. Make money from almost everything,

coklat valentine said...

If growth is important to a firm, and if growth is dependent on offering existing products and services to new customers

belajar internet marketing said...

innovation is very natural and happens in the "real world" as new plants and animals colonize new ecological niches.

konsultan perusahaan said...

I wonder how you got so good. This is really a fascinating blog, lots of stuff that I can get into. One thing I just want to say is that your Blog is so perfect

kuliner bandung said...

We generally think most specifically about the risk associated with a new product introduction

how to stay erect said...

I would be aware that as somebody who really doesn’t comment to blogs a lot (in actual fact, this may be my first put up), I don’t think the time period “lurker” is very flattering to a non-posting reader.

price per head service said...

I really enjoy reading the post, thanks for sharing I really like it, I already bookmarked it, thank you guys.

Maxine said...

I read really much effective material above!

Anonymous proxy said...

Thank you for your information. I love to read it much. Best baby video monitor reviews here | Motorola video baby monitor Here | Summer Infant Video Baby Monitor here | Samsung Video Baby Monitor here | Free proxy server website | Colintan | buingocbinh | Jobs for 15 year olds Website | Jobs for 16 year olds Website

Anonymous proxy said...

I enjoy you because of every one of your effort on this site. My mum enjoys setting aside time for internet research and its easy to understand why. facebook development facebook developer | android application developer android developer | Youtube repeat youtube loop | Love quotation love quotes | Life quotation life quotes | Horoscope Horoscope

edward said...

We're a group of volunteers and opening a brand new scheme in our community. Your web site offered us with useful info to work on. You've performed a formidable process and our whole group will probably be grateful to you.

Unknown said...

Bags Louis Vuitton, Cheap Louis Vuitton Handbags, cheap nike free, ugg soldes, uggs outlet, wholesale jordan shoes, cheap nike shoes, cheap jordan shoes, Cheap LV Handbags, ugg australia, wholesale jordan shoes for sale, cheap jordans, ugg pas cher, uggs on sale, ugg boots, jordan shoes for cheap, Cheap jordans, cheap nike air max, Discount LV Handbags, cheap nike free run, wholesale jordan shoes, discount nike jordans, cheap jordan, ugg, nike free, cheap nike jordan shoes, Discount Louis Vuitton, Cheap Nike jordan shoes, cheap jordans, air jordan shoes

Unknown said...

Thank you for your very nice article, do not forget to read my articles also
kata kata cinta
status fb lucu
wallpaper keren
kata kata lucu
kata kata galau
and many other interesting articles on my blog that.

Anonymous said...

obat herbal ampuh ambeien stadium 4
obat herbal ampuh ambeien stadium 1
pengobatan herbal ampuh ambeien stadium 4
obat herbal ampuh ambeien stadium 2
obat herbal ampuh ambeien stadium 3
obat manjur penghilang kutil di kemaluan pria
pengobatan manjur penghilang kutil di kemaluan pria
obat manjur penghilang kutil kemaluan pria
obat manjur kutil di kemaluan pria
obat penghilang kutil di kemaluan pria
obat manjur penghilang kutil di kemaluan wanita
obat manjur kutil di kemaluan wanita
obat penghilang kutil di kemaluan wanita
pengobatan manjur penghilang kutil di kemaluan wanita
obat manjur penghilang kutil di wanita
Obat Manjur Penghilang Kutil di Kemaluan Pria dan Wanita
Obat Manjur Penghilang Kutil Kemaluan Pria dan Wanita
Obat Manjur Penghilang Kutil di Kemaluan Pria
pengobatan Manjur Penghilang Kutil di Kemaluan Pria dan Wanita
Obat Manjur Penghilang Kutil di Kemaluan Wanita
obat manjur penghilang kutil di sekitar kemaluan
obat manjur penghilang kutil sekitar kemaluan
pengobatan manjur penghilang kutil di sekitar kemaluan
obat manjur kutil di sekitar kemaluan
obat penghilang kutil di sekitar kemaluan
kumpulan obat manjur penghilang kutil di kemaluan
kumpulan obat manjur kutil di kemaluan
kumpulan obat manjur penghilang kutil
kumpulan obat penghilang kutil kemaluan
kumpulan pengobatan manjur penghilang kutil di kemaluan
resep obat manjur penghilang kutil di kemaluan
resep pengobatan manjur penghilang kutil di kemaluan
obat manjur penghilang kutil di kemaluan
resep obat manjur kutil di kemaluan
resep obat penghilang kutil di kemaluan
artikel obat manjur penghilang kutil di kemaluan
artikel obat manjur kutil di kemaluan
artikel obat manjur penghilang kutil kemaluan
artikel pengobatan manjur penghilang kutil di kemaluan

obat alami said...

good article
Obat Tradisional Kelamin Mengeluarkan Nanah
Obat Tradisional Buat Kelamin Mengeluarkan Nanah
Obat Tradisional Kelamin Yang Mengeluarkan Nanah
Obat Tradisional Kelamin Wanita Mengeluarkan Nanah
Nama Obat Tradisional Kelamin Mengeluarkan Nanah

Unknown said...

Nama Obat Wasir Alami
Cara Mengobati Wasir Tanpa Operasi
Mengobati Ambeien Tanpa Operasi
Pengobatan Herbal Tumor Kanker Stadium 1
Mengobati Kemaluan Lelaki Mengeluarkan Nanah dan Darah
Obat Wasir Tradisional Manjur
Cari Obat Ampuh Sipilis Pada Pria
Obat Herbal Kondiloma Akuminata Wanita
obat kemaluan mengeluarkan nanah dan darah
Cara Mengobati Ambeien
obat kondiloma akuminata
Cara Menyembuhkan Sakit Ambeien Akut
Pengobatan Kanker Stadium 3
Cara Tradisional Menghilangkan Benjolan Ambeien
Mengobati Penyakit Ambeien Ibu Hamil Tanpa Operasi
Cara Pengobatan Kanker Stadium 2
obat ampuh sipilis pada pria
Cara Menyembuhkan Penyakit Ambeien Akut
Obat Herbal Kondiloma Akuminata
obat kondiloma akuminata yang manjur
Obat Herbal Kemaluan Mengeluarkan Nanah dan Darah
Beli Obat Wasir Ambeien
pengobatan sipilis pada pria

Unknown said...

Very happy to be visiting here, the site is very good and useful
I hope you will continue to post articles or other information,,
thank you for sharing..
visit Obat Herbal Untuk Kanker Usus

Cara Mengobati Asam Urat Secara Alami Dan Cepat said...

thanks for information.
article very nice..

Obat Herbal Darah Tinggi Yang Ampuh said...

thank you for the information you present here,
Keep posting and I really like it.. it is very good

Anonymous said...

Pengobatan Alami Kanker Payudara Stadium 3
Pengobatan Alami Kanker Payudara Stadium 1
Pengobatan Alami Kanker Payudara Stadium 4
Pengobatan Alami Kanker Payudara
Pengobatan Kanker Payudara
Pengobatan Kanker Payudara Stadium 1
Pengobatan Kanker Payudara Stadium 4
Pengobatan Kanker Payudara Stadium 3
Cara Pengobatan Kanker Payudara Stadium 3
Cara Pengobatan Kanker Payudara Stadium 1
Pengobatan Kanker Payudara Stadium 2
Cara Pengobatan Kanker Payudara Stadium 4
Pengobatan Penyakit Kanker Payudara Stadium 1
Pengobatan Penyakit Kanker Payudara Stadium 3
Pengobatan Penyakit Kanker Payudara Stadium 4
Pengobatan Penyakit Kanker Payudara Stadium 1
Mengobati Benjolan sebabkan Wasir
Mengobati Benjolan Yang Disebabkan Wasir
Cara Mengobati Benjolan Disebabkan Wasir
Mengobati Benjolan Di Wasir
Mengobati Sakit Benjolan Wasir
Cara Mengobati Benjolan Wasir
Mengobati Penyakit Benjolan Wasir
Mengobati Benjolan Wasir Ambeien

Obat Herbal Diabetes Melitus Yang Ampuh said...

very nice article, interesting and easy to understand, this may be the first step to your success.
Keep posting and updating information or other article,,

Obat Benjolan Di Rahim Ampuh Dan Aman said...

I am not good at making information or a very good article, but this article makes me become motivated to make work better.
So, thank you for sharing the article very interesting and very good and this

Anonymous said...

Pengobatan Ambeien Wasir Buat Ibu Menyusui Pantangan ambeien terutama pantangan makanan yang harus dihindari agar ambeien cepat sembuh adalah beberapa jenis makanan seperti buah durian, makanan yang mengandung santan, buah salak, makanan pedas dan cabai, serta minuman beralkohol. http://pengobatanherbalmanjur321.blogspot.com/2016/01/pengobatan-ambeien-wasir-buat-ibu.html , Kumpulan Tips Mengobati Ambeien Tanpa Operasi Wasir adalah pembuluh darah teriritasi dan meradang terletak di anus, sedangkan kanker disebabkan oleh sel-sel yang berkembang biak di luar kendali. Wasir tidak dapat menyebabkan kanker dubur. http://kembalisehat123.blogspot.com/2016/01/kumpulan-tips-mengobati-ambeien-tanpa.html
Cara Mengobati Kelamin Ngilu Bernanah Jika bakteri sudah menyebar, si penderita biasanya mengalami rasa nyeri. Banyak penderita tidak menyadari adanya kencing nanah pada tubuhnya karena biasanya gejalanya akan timbul beberapa hari setelah terinfeksi. Dan, gejalanya biasanya tidak begitu parah sehingga penderita membiarkan saja dan tidak memeriksakan diri ke dokter. http://herbal789.tumblr.com/post/136431027540/cara-mengobati-kelamin-ngilu-bernanah , Mengobati Kelamin Sakit Yang Bernanah Gejala kencing nanah juga mungkin timbul di bagian mulut atau tenggorokan. Berhubungan seksual dengan mulut bisa menghantarkan bakteri masuk ke mulut dan tenggorokan sehingga menyebabkan luka di daerah tersebut. Infeksi di bagian tenggorokan akan menyebabkan rasa tidak nyaman atau perih saat menelan makanan. Selain itu, jika bakteri telah masuk pada bagian putih pada mata, ini bisa membawa pada resiko kebutaan. http://sembuhkembali.blogspot.com/2016/01/mengobati-kelamin-sakit-yang-bernanah.html
Mengobati Penyakit Kemaluan Bernanah Berhubungan melalui mult dan rectum juga bisa membuat infeksi pada bagian tersebut. kemudian, ibu hamil yang mengidap kencing nanah juga memberi kemungkinan untuk anaknya terinfeksi. Pada kasus ibu hamil dengan kencing nanah, biasanya si bayi ditemukan dengan kerusakan mata. Bahkan jika tidak ditangani dengan baik, si anak bisa mengalami kebutaan. http://caramengobatipenyakitt.blogspot.com/2016/01/mengobati-penyakit-kemaluan-bernanah.html , Mengobati Kelamin Sakit Keluar Nanah Banyak penderita kencing nanah tidak menyadari penyakit ini karena mereka tidak mengenal jenis penyakit ini dan juga karena mereka mengira cairan tersebut hanyalah keputihan. Pada beberapa penderita juga ditemukan gejala lain seperti rasa perih saat kencing. Untuk tahap yang lebih parah lagi, banyak yang merasakan nyeri pada bagian pinggul. http://herbal789.pbworks.com/w/page/103951297/Mengobati%20Kelamin%20Sakit%20Keluar%20Nanah

Suplemen Untuk Kesehatan Mata Minus said...

If you have a history of illness that is difficult to recover, maybe our next article will help you to recover

Cara menghilangkan sakit pada tulang
Cara Mengatasi Campak
Cara Menghilangkan Sakit Tenggorokan
Cara Mengeringkan Luka Diabetes
Cara mengobati prurigo